And now, to continue my King Of The Obvious tour through the crap rattling around in my head, and with apologies to Seth Mnookin (and, hell, even Fire Joe Morgan): Murray Chass is a gormless braindead feeb whose ability to actually add two single-digit numbers went the way of his hair. (I link to BTF, because the NYT will be asking for PAY PDQ, and I don’t want to link to that sort of thing unless the PAY is heading to ME.) Let me count the ways (while forgetting to check if I need to do laundry):
1) “Projections in baseball are overused and meaningless. […] But here is one projection that could actually have some potential as a barometer. Even better, it could create some fun: At the rate at which the Yankees are slashing into Boston’s lead in the American League East, they will pass the Red Sox in the standings by July 4.”
Welcome to the wide wonderful world of Strength of Schedule. After the conclusion of the “thrilling, pulse-pounding, season-turning” (that’s a paraphrase, not a quote) 6-5 Yankee victory against the Red Sox in Fenway two Sundays ago, the Yankees traveled to Chicago (27-34, as of today, 6/12), then returned home to tussle with the Pittsburgh Pirates (27-37). Meanwhile, the Sox traveled far west for four games with the Oakland A’s (34-28), then hopped to Arizona to enjoy the hospitality of the Diamondbacks (37-27). Guess who had the tougher go of it?
In a turn of events that will shock no one (except maybe Chass), the Yankees won six out of seven (three of four in Chicago; a clean sweep of the shoot-me-now Pirates). Meanwhile, the Red Sox lost three of four to the A’s superlative (and timely) pitching, then took two of three from Arizona (damn you Randy Johnson), for a final total of 3 wins and 4 losses. Meaning that the Yankees gained three games on the Sox during this stretch.
Never mind that Jim Tracy mismanaged the one game he could’ve won (by leaving Gorzelanny out for way too long to start the 7th - a leadoff double by Miguel Cairo ain’t the sort of thing you pitch through late in a start, coach - then turning to two shitbirds to navigate through the heart of the Yankee lineup while Damaso Marte, your 2nd best bullpen guy behind The Closer [no Sedgwick], languishes in the bullpen until two runs are given up). Never mind that the White Sox have the worst offense in all of baseball. Never mind that the A’s have the lowest team ERA in the American League (and are only .11 earned runs behind the Petco-padded Padres). And God forbid Chass should look past his own willful myopia and note that the Diamondbacks are a first place team.
No, this past week of action is clearly a sign that the Yankees are surging and the Red Sox are flailing, and the oft-mentioned specter of 1978 (shut the hell up, Miller & Morgan) is going to swoop by and touch the bat of some no-hit middle infielder (Miguel!) during a pivotal late-season match-up between MLB’s Hatfields and McCoys. Astute analysis, Mr. Chass - yes, if the Yankees get to switch off between two of the worst teams in baseball for the rest of the season, while the Red Sox contend with an AL Wild Card hopeful and a division-leader, then the Yankees will eventually overtake the Red Sox. It’s no wonder he writes for the Times, with that sort of brainpower at his disposal.
2) ” Speaking of 1978 [Ed. Note - NO WAI?], the Yankees didn’t eradicate their 14-game deficit overnight. They went quickly from 14 to 10 in only four days, then picked up two more games during the following four-day period. But from July 27 on it was a slow process; a month later, the Yankees had sliced only half a game from their deficit, meaning that they lagged seven and a half games behind Boston with five weeks left in the season. […] The point is that even if the Yankees don’t continue to slash gobs of games from Boston’s lead in the coming days or weeks, it doesn’t mean that the Red Sox are safe. Sixteen weeks remain in the season, which is plenty of time for dramatic events to occur.”
Actually, Mr. Chass (if I may condescend), the point is that little sentence fragment I bold-faced up there. 1978 was a one-in-a-million occurrence that required so many perfect storms and broken mirrors and black cats to even get to the one-game playoff that ultimately cost the Red Sox the division, never mind making up that sort of deficit in just over a month. Entering today, a .500 finish for the rest of the season means the Red Sox end up with 90 wins. The Yankees would have to, in essence, play as well as the Red Sox have to this point in the season for the rest of the season - a 61-40 record - to win the division.
And this is with the Yankees having already played tiddlywinks with the D-Rays for four games, and the punchless ChiSox SEVEN times. while only getting three rounds with (let’s emphasize this) the best pitching staff in the American League. And this is with Boston having already played Detroit four times and their full complement of A’s games (seven) & having yet to face the White Sox or Tampa Bay. Yeah, the Sox had the Royals thrice (with nonce for NY, ods bodkins), and the Yankees had to contend with those “surprising” Mariners - yeah, that team with the solid offense and god-awful pitching, those “surprising” Mariners, the “AL West version of the Yankees” Mariners - for all of seven games (to three for Boston). And, yeah, facing the Mets is a tougher row to hoe than facing the Braves.
But, still, what I’m getting at - that 60-win thing the Yankees would have to do (assuming the Red Sox only break even from this point forward) isn’t that likely. Which leads to Strike Three:
3) “Clemens, Chien-Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte and Mike Mussina should be good enough to match the Boston starters. That rotation has an unbeaten Josh Beckett (9-0), but it also has two pitchers, Tim Wakefield and Julián Tavárez, who have losing records on a team that has the best record in the major leagues.”
I’ll give the Yankees Wang and Pettitte (though I’m waiting for the wheels to come off of Wang’s K-less carriage, and Pettitte’s personal relationship with God might not keep him safe from the injury bugaboo that’s bitten him in the past). And, sure, Clemens, for 28 pro-rated million dollars, might be good (though that 100+ pitch effort against Pittsburgh isn’t an inspiring sort of thing). But Mussina’s nothing close to a sure thing until he can actually bring a non-mediocre effort to the mound on a consistent basis. And that fifth-slot - home to either a Tampa-fied Igawa, or the three-headed rookie monster (DeKarpard?) that’s been schlepping out to the mound for most of the season, or that Hughes kid with the potential and the boo-boos - is a crapshoot.
Meanwhile, those beloved scrappy Red Sox (cough cough) have four starting pitchers - four! - with ten starts or more and ERAs at or under 4.52. (It would be prettier if Dice-K could actually drop the .02 points off his ERA to make things nice and shiny, but I won’t quibble.) Tavárez has a robust 5.25 ERA as well, but he’s the damn fifth starter, and he’s shaved nearly a run and a half off of his average since May 11th. And he’s taken the mound as the starter over ten times as well.
As for those telling, damning records under .500 that show 40% of the Red Sox rotation is shark chum? Wakefield is a whole 2 games below the break-even point - at 5-7, he’s been hit with every decision for every game he’s started, and he’s earned 5 of those 7 losses (with two Quality Starts going for naught). Meanwhile, Tavárez is living some sort of charmed life, because the Red Sox have split the difference in his 12 starts to date. Again, he’s the damn fifth starter - if you can win half of the games your fifth starter is pitching, then you’re doing something right.
And never mind the bullpen differential, Mr. Journalist Sir. The Red Sox bullpen has definitely exceeded expectations, thanks to Hideki Okajima’s coming-out party and Brendan Donnelly’s return to (Emery-abetted?) form. (I’m going to take a wild guess and say that J.C. Romero’s 1.95 WHIP, .308 BAA, and 3.15 ERA makes him the winner of the Inherited Runners Scoring contest. Maybe Rolaids should hand out a Firestarter award, too?) Meanwhile, the Yankees, hamstrung by both a rash of starting-pitching injuries and Joe Torre’s usage patterns - “you’re my guy until your arm falls off, unless the moons align and I have undercooked chicken the night you blow a lead; then you’re in the doghouse come Hell or herpes” - have a bunch of guys of varying quality getting worked like Iditarod sled teams. The Yankees have four bullpen guys in the top 20 in appearances - 3 effective (Scott Proctor, Brian Bruney, Mike Myers), 1 walking cussword (Jose “LOL @ Randy Johnson” Vizcaino). The only other team with many relievers in the top 20: the Baltimore Orioles, not the team you want to be kissing cousins with in the pitching department.
And it’s no doubt that the overworked and ineffective bullpen (see one Mariano Rivera’s April & May) are the cause for the Yankees’ one true failing - their awful one-run-game record. The Red Sox, leading the charmed bullpen-abetted life they are - 11-6 (now 12-6, thanks to tonight’s 2-1 squeaker against the Rockies). The Yankees, getting bit in the ass - 4-10. If my math’s right, that’s 5.5 games in the standings right there. And that’s why the Yankees, despite outscoring their opponents by 52 runs to date this season, are just getting back to the .500 mark this evening, and have a hell of a mountain to climb.
Now I’m as much a fan of a good story as Mr. Chass claims to be in this joke of a column. But, as a Red Sox fan (not of the Pukka-shell Jeter-AIDS variety, though fuck one fistpump sans lube, if you please), I pray that the Yankees get nowhere near the division lead. After the WTF turn of events in 2005 - wherein sporadically-talented slapheads like Aaron Small and Shawn Chacon saved the Yankee season by pitching out of their minds - I’ve had my fill of Yankee mystique and pinstripe pride and all of the regular-season shenanigans that have had the Yankees exposed in the postseason like the glossy paper tigers they’ve been for the past three years. Questionable pitching (and pitcher usage), coupled with inopportune hitting slumps (hi Alex), a godawful bench (Miguel!), and the sort of defense that fuels the fancies of drunk co-ed softball teams, has lead to New York going championshipless the past six years. That’s really a shame for the Tri-State area, but I’m all for it, as are the majority of baseball fans sick of Yankee overexposure. (Said fans are probably sick of Red Sox overexposure as well, to whom I say: deez nutz, they are yours to suck, ha ha and a ha.)
Unfortunately for me and other haters, Brian Cashman knows his ass from a hole in the ground, and seems to have the sort of control over Georgie Boy that the caretakers in the late 80s / early 90s were incapable of exercising. But I will continue to hope for a return to those halcyon days of my baseball youth, when the azure green fields of Yankee Stadium were patrolled by Kevin Maas and Oscar Azocar, when Andy Hawkins and Tim Leary toed the rubber for the New York faithful (and could lose no-hitters), when John Sterling wasn’t an insufferable catch-phrase loving drunk sack of ass. And this year, with its confluence of bad luck and bad habits, and the presence of such sainted names as Melky and Clippard and DeSalvo, carries with it the airs of those sunny days of my misbegotten youth. I find myself basking in the sort of nostalgic vapors I wasn’t expecting to sniff until I hit the big 4-0, and for that, even if it’s only for these past nine weeks of the season, I am eternally grateful.
And to Murray Chass - thanks for getting me worked up enough to actually write something about baseball that’s in my own voice, for a change. You suck, but you’re OK.
(And if you actually read all the way to here, and you don’t want to punch me in the taint, how’s about saying howdy?)